可融资：股权 IRR 14.1%，要求回报 10%（股权 NPV +1,752,354 €），项目 IRR 9.2%，最低 DSCR 1.49。
股权 IRR
14.1%
税后，债务 70%
项目 IRR
9.2%
无杠杆，税后
股权 NPV @ 10%
€1,752,354
项目 NPV @ 6.5%
€3,462,999
股权回收期
8 年 3 个月
最小 / 平均 DSCR
1.49 / 1.51
贷款方要求 ≥ 1.20–1.35
年发电量（第 1 年）
26,280MWh
满负荷 1,314 小时
收入（第 1 年）
€1,708,200
EBITDA 利润率（第 1 年）
84.8%
债务 / 股权
9,100,000 / 3,900,000
每年还本付息 936,961 €
LCOE
55.4€/MWh
WACC 6.5% 时
每 MW 投资
€650,000
现金流量表
| 年份 | MWh | 收入 | 运营成本 | EBITDA | 利息 | 本金 | 税 | 股权现金流 | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | -3,900,000 | ||||||||
| 1 | 26,280 | 1,708,200 | 260,000 | 1,448,200 | 546,000 | 390,961 | 50,440 | 460,799 | 1.49 |
| 2 | 26,149 | 1,725,154 | 266,500 | 1,458,654 | 522,542 | 414,419 | 57,222 | 464,470 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 26,018 | 1,742,276 | 273,163 | 1,469,114 | 497,677 | 439,284 | 64,287 | 467,865 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 25,888 | 1,759,568 | 279,992 | 1,479,577 | 471,320 | 465,641 | 71,651 | 470,964 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 25,758 | 1,777,032 | 286,991 | 1,490,040 | 443,382 | 493,579 | 79,332 | 473,748 | 1.51 |
| 6 | 25,630 | 1,794,669 | 294,166 | 1,500,503 | 413,767 | 523,194 | 87,347 | 476,194 | 1.51 |
| 7 | 25,501 | 1,812,481 | 301,520 | 1,510,961 | 382,375 | 554,586 | 95,717 | 478,282 | 1.51 |
| 8 | 25,374 | 1,830,470 | 309,058 | 1,521,412 | 349,100 | 587,861 | 104,462 | 479,988 | 1.51 |
| 9 | 25,247 | 1,848,637 | 316,785 | 1,531,853 | 313,828 | 623,133 | 113,605 | 481,287 | 1.51 |
| 10 | 25,121 | 1,866,985 | 324,704 | 1,542,281 | 276,441 | 660,521 | 123,168 | 482,151 | 1.51 |
| 11 | 24,995 | 1,885,515 | 332,822 | 1,552,693 | 236,809 | 700,152 | 133,177 | 482,555 | 1.52 |
| 12 | 24,870 | 1,904,229 | 341,143 | 1,563,086 | 194,800 | 742,161 | 143,657 | 482,468 | 1.51 |
| 13 | 24,746 | 1,923,128 | 349,671 | 1,573,457 | 150,271 | 786,691 | 154,637 | 481,858 | 1.51 |
| 14 | 24,622 | 1,942,215 | 358,413 | 1,583,802 | 103,069 | 833,892 | 166,147 | 480,694 | 1.51 |
| 15 | 24,499 | 1,961,492 | 367,373 | 1,594,118 | 53,036 | 883,926 | 178,217 | 478,941 | 1.51 |
| 16 | 24,377 | 1,980,959 | 376,558 | 1,604,402 | 0 | 0 | 190,880 | 1,413,521 | — |
| 17 | 24,255 | 2,000,620 | 385,971 | 1,614,649 | 0 | 0 | 192,930 | 1,421,719 | — |
| 18 | 24,133 | 2,020,477 | 395,621 | 1,624,856 | 0 | 0 | 194,971 | 1,429,885 | — |
| 19 | 24,013 | 2,040,530 | 405,511 | 1,635,018 | 0 | 0 | 197,004 | 1,438,015 | — |
| 20 | 23,893 | 2,060,782 | 415,649 | 1,645,133 | 0 | 0 | 199,027 | 1,446,106 | — |
| 21 | 23,773 | 2,081,235 | 426,040 | 1,655,195 | 0 | 0 | 331,039 | 1,324,156 | — |
| 22 | 23,654 | 2,101,892 | 436,691 | 1,665,200 | 0 | 0 | 333,040 | 1,332,160 | — |
| 23 | 23,536 | 2,122,753 | 447,609 | 1,675,144 | 0 | 0 | 335,029 | 1,340,115 | — |
| 24 | 23,418 | 2,143,821 | 458,799 | 1,685,022 | 0 | 0 | 337,004 | 1,348,018 | — |
| 25 | 23,301 | 2,165,099 | 470,269 | 1,694,830 | 0 | 0 | 338,966 | 1,355,864 | — |
- 名义值逐年模型：投资在第 0 年，等额年金（按揭式）贷款，直线折旧，税务亏损向后结转，不计建设期利息和储备账户。
- 股权 IRR 采用扣除还本付息和税后的股东现金流；项目 IRR 采用无杠杆税后现金流（计税时不考虑利息抵税）。
- DSCR = 可用于偿债的现金流 ÷ 还本付息额。实际中贷款方确定贷款规模时，会让最低 DSCR 保持在约 1.2（有长期合同）到约 1.4（市场化售电）以上。